THE Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday shows that UKIP, with turncoat Tory MP Carswell as their candidate, will win the October Clacton by-election with 64% of the vote, with a record 48% swing to UKIP.
According to the poll, the most popular Tory leader currently, would-be MP and PM Boris Johnson, would win just 27% of the vote against Carswell’s 60% if he stood against him.
The poll puts the UKIP candidate Carswell 44% ahead of his former party in the Essex constituency.
The survey also makes grim reading for Miliband and Clegg. Labour support has halved to a mere 13 per cent since the 2010 Election and the Lib Dems have almost vanished with just 2% compared to 11 per cent in 2010.
However the death knell tolls for the Tory party and government.
This is why a glance at the Tory press will show that, if anything, the much-hated President Putin, who is currently being denounced as a ‘mass murderer’ is more popular than Carswell who is being denounced as a ‘gutless coward’ by his former comrades.
Victory for Carswell in the October by-election will see dozens of Tory careerist MPs defect to UKIP and Cameron put into a position where the only solution is for him to quit before the general election and make way for a future UKIP-Tory pact, that would see a temporary PM appointed, a modern-day Sir Alec Douglas Home (an import from the House of Lords) who was the temporary stand in after McMillan resigned in 1963), in the hope that if the Tories win the general election, alongside alongside UKIP, Johnson will be able to lead a new coalition.
In fact, after Home resigned from the House of Lords he was PM for two weeks without being a member of either house of parliament until he won a parliamentary election. On 7 November 1963 he contested and won the Kinross and West Perthshire by-election. For the two weeks in between he was a Prime Minister who belonged to neither the House of Commons nor the House of Lords.
The Tory Party suffered a major crisis in the mid 1960s as a restored Germany and Japan began to drive it out of the world’s markets. Today’s worldwide crisis is driving forward the death agony of the British ruling class.
It has lost its worldwide empire but is unable to submit to being a minor power, under Germany in the EU. It is enraged that it does not receive special treatment from the EU as its right.
The truth is that the 2008 banking collapse and slump has damaged it beyond repair, and it is on the rocks. It has lost its empire and its historical role as an imperialist offshore island of Europe that balances between Franco-German rivalries. It now has no industry and depends on a broken banking system.
It can no longer afford any concessions to the working class for the sake of class peace. It sees its future as a cheap labour state competing with the likes of India and China and therefore in a permanent war against the trade unions and the great gains of the UK working class, its welfare state and NHS.
Now its ruling class is split between those who say that the UK cannot survive outside of the EU and those who insist that it can only survive in the EU as a humble servant of Germany, a role that they cannot abide.
The Tory party is doomed to perish – it cannot even maintain the union from which British capitalism was launched.
Meanwhile, the working class is seeking a party that is capable of defending its great gains, its basic rights and its welfare state, as well as giving its youth a real future, and of replacing the bankrupt capitalist Union with a British workers republic.
There is only one party that declares that this is the task ahead and that is the WRP, the British section of the International Committee of the Fourth International.
Every worker and youth should join this party and its youth section the Young Socialists and take part in the YS March for Jobs to the TUC Congress to demand that the TUC calls a general strike to bring down the Tories and bring in a workers government and socialism.