AN estimated 655,000 more Iraqis have died as a consequence of the March 2003 military invasion of Iraq than would have been expected in a non-conflict situation, according to The Lancet.
In October 2004, the medical journal published a paper which estimated that nearly 100,000 ‘excess deaths’ had happened in Iraq between March 2003 to September 2004 because of the invasion of military forces.
In the latest study, Gilbert Burnham (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA) and colleagues updated this estimate by assessing deaths in the post-invasion period – March 2003 to June 2006 – and comparing these with deaths in the pre-invasion period – January 2002 to March 2003.
The researchers randomly selected 47 sites across Iraq which contained a total of 1,849 households and 12,801 household members. Each household was surveyed about births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration between May and June this year.
When there had been a death in the household, the interviewers asked about the cause of death and requested to see a copy of the death certificate.
In 92 per cent of cases, a death was confirmed by a death certificate. The team did not ask interviewees whether the people they reported dead were civilians or combatants.
The study found that of the 629 deaths reported, 547 (87 per cent) were in the post-invasion period compared with 82 (13 per cent) in the pre-invasion period. The mortality rate pre-invasion was 5·5 per 1,000 people per year, while post-invasion this rose to 13·3 per 1,000 people per year.
This doubling of baseline mortality rate constitutes a humanitarian emergency, state the authors.
The researchers estimate that as a consequence of the coalition invasion, an additional 654,965 (ranging from 392,979 – 942,636) Iraqis have died above what would have been expected on the basis of the pre-invasion mortality rate.
The investigators found that the excess mortality could mainly be attributed to an increase in the rate of violent deaths, which has risen every year post-invasion.
Of the 655,000 excess deaths estimated, around 601,000 would have been due to violent causes. Most violent deaths were due to gunshots (56 per cent).
Air strikes, car bombs, and other explosions each accounted for 13 to 14 per cent of violent deaths.
Deaths attributable to the coalition forces accounted for 31 per cent of post-invasion violent deaths.
The study found that while the proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, the actual numbers have increased every year since the start of the war.
Additionally, when the researchers applied the mortality rates reported in this study to the period of the 2004 survey they found that it gave an estimate of 112,000 excess deaths in Iraq.
Therefore the data presented here validates the results of the 2004 study, state the authors.
The authors conclude: ‘We estimate that almost 655,000 people – 2·5 per cent of the population – have died in Iraq. Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century, and should be of grave concern to everyone . . .
‘At the conclusion of our 2004 study we urged that an independent body assess the excess mortality that we saw in Iraq.
‘This has not happened. We continue to believe that an independent international body to monitor compliance with the Geneva Conventions and other humanitarian standards in conflict is urgently needed.
‘With reliable data, those voices that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen the tragic human cost of future wars.’
In an accompanying Online/Comment, Richard Horton, Editor of The Lancet, states: ‘The disaster that is the West’s current strategy in Iraq must be used as a constructive call to the international community to reconfigure its foreign policy around human security rather than national security, around health and well-being in addition to the protection of territorial boundaries and economic stability.
‘Health is now the most important foreign policy issue of our time.’
Cash for Muslims who oppose extremists – Kelly
Communities Secretary Ruth Kelly yesterday said Muslim groups which prove they are ‘determined to take on extremists’ within their ranks will receive financial support.
She warned Muslims: ‘Unless moderates can establish themselves at the centre of their communities and faith, extremists could grow in strength and influence.
‘So I promise we will increase our commitment to work in partnership with you and communities throughout Britain who show, through their words and actions, that they are determined to take on extremists and to defend values that the vast majority of us share.
‘It is not good enough to merely sit on the side lines or pay lip service to fighting extremism.
‘In the future, I’m clear that our strategy of funding and engagement must shift significantly towards those organisations that are taking a proactive leadership role in tackling extremists and defending our values. . .’
Attempting to lay down the law, Kelly added: ‘I know this message will be challenging for some. I make no apologies for that.
‘The scale of the threat means doing any less would be a dereliction of our duty.’
Funding will be available for projects that involve women, that build bridges between communities and are in touch with young people, she said.
During a speech to the Commission on Integration and Cohesion, established after July 7th, she claimed: ‘In our attempt to avoid imposing a single British identity and culture, have we ended up with some communities living in isolation of each other, with no common bonds between them?’
