The Irish Political Journalist JOHN COULTER assesses the impact of the Stormont results on political stability in the North of Ireland.
Ulster Unionist boss Tom Elliott’s notorious ‘Sinn Fein scum’ jibe is either the start of a radical repositioning of the party, or an off-the-cuff comment which will spark a new leadership battle within the UUP.
The UUP meltdown did not emerge, and while there were a few losses, there were also some gains, making the final seat tally 16 – only two less than the 2007 poll, thereby keeping its third place spot, two seats more than the SDLP which has 14 seats.
For much of the long, drawn-out Assembly and Alternative Vote referendum counts, the talk was of voter apathy, slowness of counting, and a return of the status quo in terms of the DUP, Sinn Fein, Alliance coalition in the Executive with a gain of five seats.
The DUP won 38, up two; Sinn Fein 29, up one, and Alliance eight, also up one.
But the real fall out was sparked by UUP boss Elliott during his declaration speech in Fermanagh South Tyrone when he responded to flag-waving republican hecklers as ‘Sinn Fein scum’, and branding the Irish Tricolour as ‘a foreign flag’.
His comments drew heavy political flak from both republicans and nationalists, and even divided opinion within the unionist camp.
The liberal UUP wing – spearheaded by MLAs Basil McCrea and Assembly group deputy leader – see Elliott’s comments as a chance to re-open the leadership debate. McCrea lost last September’s leadership battle to Elliott.
If the UUP make significant losses in this week’s local council count, it will put pressure on McCrea to launch a second leadership bid, especially with the party’s ruling Ulster Unionist Council annual meeting to be held on Saturday June 4th in Belfast.
Liberal unionists may also put pressure on Elliott to either apologise or quit because of his ‘scum’ outburst.
If Elliott was forced to step down over this issue, McCrea will most likely face a challenge from the newly emerging Right-wing champion, the former TV presenter Mike Nesbitt, who was elected in Strangford, the constituency previously represented by Iris Robinson before her teen lover scandal broke.
Likewise, many in the UUP believe the party’s poor Assembly showing was because First Minister Peter Robinson’s DUP has stolen the UUP’s voters, policies, seats and middle ground position in Northern politics.
The DUP now holds the ground previously occupied by former Northern Prime Minister Terence O’Neill’s liberal Unionist Stormont government in the late 1960s, before Ian Paisley senior launched a political campaign against O’Neill.
Ironically, too, Robinson’s other main Executive partner, Sinn Fein, now resembles the moderate republican Irish Nationalist Party in Stormont, once fronted by veteran campaigner Eddie McAteer.
Gone are the days when senior DUP politicians marched with the red berets of the Ulster Resistance terror group.
Gone, too, are the days when Sinn Fein councillors refused to stand as a mark of respect to police officers or soldiers who had been murdered by IRA or INLA terrorists.
The DUP, Sinn Fein, and Alliance coalition may not have to worry too much about an opposition emerging at Stormont from the UUP or SDLP, as the latter two parties may face leadership coups.
While the SDLP has overall only lost two seats from its 2007 tally of 16, it did lose at least three ‘big gun’ MLAs, such as Declan O’Loan in North Antrim, Thomas Burns in South Antrim, and veteran politician Tommy Gallagher in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
It also failed to capitalise on boundary changes in West Tyrone and East Antrim.
However, leader Margaret Ritchie has been emphasising the rebuilding process in the party, pointing to a number of new, younger MLAs returned to Stormont.
More pressure could be put on the Ritchie leadership because it again failed to pushed the UUP into fourth spot.
Both parties may also be worried that the campaign to form an official opposition at Stormont could be hijacked by hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party boss Jim Allister who sneaked a seat in his native North Antrim.
An Elliott-led UUP may have to re-position itself on the Unionist Right wing to give the party a new identity, and Right-wingers have been portraying their leader’s ‘scum’ outburst as the start of this process.
Likewise, with Sinn Fein also moving into the political centre ground, the SDLP may have to rebrand itself as a deeply socialist party in a bid to put a dent in the Sinn Fein vote.
All parties, however, will be assessing how they can combat the growing voter apathy across all constituencies, but especially in the Unionist community.
