Egyptian President Husni Mubarak said on Monday that a longer term truce between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas which controls the Gaza Strip could come into effect as early as next week.
The deal – a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas is expected to be signed within the next 48 hours – is set to include two stages: An oral agreement on both sides to hold fire, followed by a written agreement for a one-year truce at least.
Mubarak was speaking in Paris after briefing his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy on Cairo’s efforts to mediate a truce in the Gaza conflict through indirect talks, following last month’s 22-day Israeli offensive.
Israel expects the release of captured occupation soldier Gilad Shalit to be included in the truce agreement along with the reopening of the Gaza Strip’s crossings.
The past few days have seen many reports on progress made in the indirect talks on this matter, including some flexibility on both sides.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak declared that ‘Operation Cast Lead’ had advanced the changes to secure Shalit’s release.
He expressed his hope that the captive soldier will return home before a new government is sworn in.
Arab newspapers reported that Israel had expressed its willingness to release most of the senior detainees demanded by Hamas, excluding Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Secretary-General Ahmad Saadat, who was responsible for the assassination of Israeli Minister Rehavam Ze’evi, and three other prisoners.
Meanwhile, Egyptian sources said Sunday that Hamas has acceded over the past few days to the Israeli demand to link the opening of the crossings to the release of Shalit.
This allows progress toward a cease-fire, by creating a connection between the opening of all crossings by Israel, on completion of a prisoner swap and Shalit’s release.
Egyptian sources were ‘very optimistic’ about making progress toward a deal in the near future.
However, they said it could not be known when there would be a breakthrough.
According to the plan Egypt is promoting, Israel would open the crossings, albeit not totally, when a cease-fire is reached.
The crossings would operate at 80-per cent capacity, which would allow a large quantity of merchandise to pass into the Gaza Strip, as Hamas is demanding.
However, Israel still insists on the right to prevent certain materials from entering the Strip – including cement, iron and other items.
Hamas is believed to want just these materials to come in, to begin rebuilding the thousands of homes destroyed by the Israeli occupation army during the last aggression.
Israel says these materials would be allowed in only after an agreement is reached on Shalit’s release, in exchange for the Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails.
Three members of the Israeli cabinet made optimistic statements about a possible release of Shalit before the end of outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s term, and Israeli Defence sources said they believed a deal could be clinched within a few weeks.
Some movement has been evident in the position of Hamas, which until recently had refused any linkage between a cease-fire, the opening of the border crossings and Shalit’s release.
Any deal still needs the approval of Hamas politburo Chief Khaled Mishaal in Damascus, who has so far opposed it.
A delegation of Hamas leaders headed by Mahmoud Zahar left Cairo for Damascus, for talks on the subject with leaders from the movement’s political wing.
They then returned to Cairo with the Damascus wing’s responses to the Egyptian cease-fire plan and the Israeli proposal concerning Shalit’s release.
Egypt has specifically noted that reports from Turkey that the Turkish government is participating in mediation efforts with Hamas are incorrect.
Hamas officials who were in Egypt during the past few days have also said that Turkey has played no active part in attaining a cease-fire or a prisoner swap.
Deputy Head of the Hamas politburo Musa Abu-Marzuk on Sunday denied that significant progress had been made toward a deal for Shalit’s release.
Official Israeli sources declined to discuss reports in the Arab media that imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti was among those to be released.
The latest Israeli proposal mentioned the names of approximately 1,000 detainees, including 350 on the Hamas list.
Reports about the number of prisoners to be released actually range from 700 to 1,000. If the number is indeed 1,000, the release would take place in three stages: 350 prisoners would be freed simultaneously with Shalit’s transfer to a site outside the Gaza Strip (Cyprus or Egypt); 100 more would be released after Shalit is brought to Israel; and the remaining prisoners would be released in the third stage.
The release of the last group may be presented as a gesture to Egyptian President Husni Mubarak, who is the major intermediary in the deal.
This tentative deal, will have to await a new Israeli government which may take weeks to form after Tuesday’s general election.
l So far, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima party appears to have pulled off a narrow victory in Tuesday’s election, winning 28 seats in the Knesset with Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party close behind with 27.
Both Livni and Netanyahu, however, have claimed victory and say that they are seeking to form governing coalitions.
Livni proposed a national unity government along with Netanyahu, but he has already refused this offer.
With 99% of the vote counted, Defence Minister Ehud Barak’s Labour party won 13 seats, while the extreme rightist Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party won 15.
Despite Kadima’s apparent victory, the right wing will hold the balance of power in the coming Knesset, with rightist parties, led by Likud, projected to control up to 62 seats in the 120-member parliament. A centre-left bloc headed by Livni may well only hold 58.
The secular left-wing Meretz won only three seats. Right-wing religious parties also won few seats.
United Torah Judaism won five seats, followed by the National Union with four and the Bayit Hayehudi with three. The Israeli Arab party Ra’am Ta’al scored four seats and Balad won three.
The Pensioners Party and the Green Movement-Meimad each won just 1 percent of the total vote, just missing the threshold to gain a seat in the Knesset.
